I am a meteorologist and a former youth leader at church…I have a lot to say on both subjects…and then some
This morning, my website died for a bit, and we had to go to Gaylord today. So I put the post on social media. So as Erin heats back up, I thought I would put some recreational impacts over the next few days for the Atlantic Coast.
So looking at the graphic on the left is the whole path through the next 5 days with the probability for Tropical force winds (34+ knots). The purple color are 90-100% chance with each color 10% less.
The middle graphic is the current effect on the islands with the Turks and Caicos, and Southeast Bahamas having tropical storm warnings and watches in the central Bahamas. The graphic on the right shows that there are now tropical storm warnings for the Outer Banks and there is a storm surge forecast for 1-3 feet along South Carolina’s Grand Strand and Northern Strand. 2-4 foot surge along the Outer Banks, and 1-3 north of there into Norfolk, VA.
With the wave action (16-30ft offshore), the rip currents are going to be high.
Currently, and mainly tomorrow (which will probably remain for the next few days), There are High Rip Current Risks from around Boca Raton, FL north to Nantucket Island. That means, that even if the weather looks good, the rip currents will begin to form along the coast as the swell periods increase (more wave energy). So stay out of the water. I know with the Waves big, surfs up! Just be careful and stay with your surfboard, and surf with a buddy. But you too, should stay out of the water.
Then there’s this…
Obviously Erin leads the train, but second is the 60% chance (Orange) for development. We’ve been talking about that for the last few days, as it looks like it will shift north, and follow Erin to a point. The GEFS (GFS Ensemble) shows the member low centers scatter by 180 hours (early morning Aug 26) with some following the same path as Erin, and some move inland into Georgia/Carolinas/Florida. Then on the 7:30 pm there is now a 10% chance development for a wave that has just come off of Africa. This will be interesting over the next 2 weeks.
Looking around Lower Michigan and South Texas, we got a reprieve from the heat and humidity today in Lower Michigan as the front went through. That won’t be the case in a day or two. In South Texas, it is summer, and the movement of 98L’s energy out of the region is showing a sunny and hot Sunday. For both places, the beaches would be nice. Although, Lower Michigan has some issues with rip currents today. So, let’s look at the maps…
Looking at the upper air pattern in the upper left of the gallery, the Upper Great Lakes are in NW flow, but it seems that won’t be for long as the ridge moves east and flattens a bit (Here comes the heat!). South Texas, remains hot and with the ridge over the region.
So no thunder threat today in South Texas, or Lower Michigan (Well, okay south of a line from Benton Harbor to Niles there is general thunder).
Looks like Lower Michigan gets in on the thunder action tomorrow (Monday and Tuesday) with general thunderstorms.
Looks like theGulf moisture increases again and the sea breeze produces some thunder chances Monday. Tuesday has the chance of thunder across the whole state.
Looks like most of Texas misses out on the heavy rain and the chances are less than 5%. However, Lower Michigan has chances of 5-14% for excessive heavy rain leading to flash flooding Monday and Tuesday with the next system.
In the tropics, Erin (currently, a category 3 hurricane) continues to follow (more or less) the path that the models have been saying. The color overlaid with the path is the chance of tropical storm force winds impacting area. The northern part of the island of Hispaniola is only in a 5% chance, but the Turks and Caicos islands are 20-50% chance and have a Tropical Storm Warning, with a few of the southern Bahama islands with a Tropical Storm Watch. The Outer Banks in North Carolina have a 5% chance for Tropical Storm Winds, as Erin moves NE, and Bermuda, on the other side of the Hurricane has a 20% chance (at this time) of Tropical Storm Winds. The main impact, since the storm is currently expected to remain offshore will be High Rip Current Risks and beach flooding.
Okay, so let’s look at local Beach forecasts for Lower Michigan and South Texas…
For lower Michigan…
The wind is out of the NNE so and will get going, during the afternoon. So then Lake Huron Beaches are at a high risk, while most of the Lake Michigan beaches are moderate to high. Temperatures are cooler than yesterday, with temperatures in NE Lower around 70° and the SW Lower will be in the mid 80s.
Temperature today will be from the upper 80s at the Beaches to around 100º inland in the Coastal Plains and the Victoria Crossroads. For the Brush Country and the Rio Grande Plains, 100-105º. If you are used to the heat, and hydrate, it should be a good day in the Brush Country. However, if it were me, my wife and I would head to the beaches. Especially, since there is a low rip risk and the 10 MPH onshore wind would keep us cool.
Have a great day!
After yesterday’s hot, sunny weather, here in West Michigan, it looks like things will take a turn today. 98L did bring some rain to the Nueces River basin, but not as much as the models said. There is still a threat for showers and Thunderstorms in South Texas. Here are the details…
That cold front that we talked about yesterday, will move into lower Michigan today, and by late this evening be in southern lower Michigan. This is bringing moderate to high chance that there will be showers and thunderstorms. SPC and WPC has us outlooked for marginal risk (Level 1 out of 5) respectively, but the slight risks (2 of 5) for both is just west in Wisconsin. However, the front fizzles overnight, and Sunday looks to be sunny to partly cloudy. It will still be warm today with mid 80s to the lower 90s in Lower Michigan.
I was talking about the front moving south. Here you can see as it moves into northern lower this afternoon, and southern lower this evening and overnight.
This morning’s analysis doesn’t look too different from other days. Weak onshore flow with a heat low to the west. Well, maybe not a heat low. Take a look at the satellite from the past 18 hours. You see 98L move ashore with its center moving west and the cloud shield trying to move north, into a thunderstorm sheared environment.
South Texas did get some rain in the basin, but not as much that was expected.
So for the details of the forecasts (didn’t I see that before?)…Lower Michigan Beaches have a low risk of rip currents today, but thunderstorms are expected to be scattered to numerous by the afternoon, and lasting into this evening.
For the South Texas beaches, there will be a few showers and thunderstorms, with a high risk of rip currents due to the lingering effects of Invest 98L.
So what ever you do today, have a great day!
We have family coming today, and another busy day of errands. The RV is being washed, due to all of the bugs and road grime on our trip back to Michigan. We do have a few leads on selling it. I like doing the videos, but the editing and uploading takes more time, so another post…
We have another jet streak, moving across the Northern Plains today, with low pressure and a few fronts hanging around the region.
This leads to the front in the upper left of the Great Lakes analysis pushing into the Upper Great Lakes tonight, although showers are already showing up on radar in Wisconsin.
The front and lows lead to the slight risk (2 of5) for severe thunderstorms and Excessive heavy rain in the Upper Mississippi Valley. So in Lower Michigan, Sunny skies, but the thunderstorms will begin to encroach on West Michigan and NW Lower overnight. There is a slight risk from the moisture moving up from Mexico into Arizona and there is a slight risk for heavy rain with Invest 98L which is moving out of the southwestern Gulf, and the Rio Grande Valley, and South Texas. Watch out for this feature the next couple of days, but not for development, but for the possibility of heavy rain going into South Texas.
Current WWA is mainly heat related in the Central Plains and into the Gulf Coast States. The Red Flag warnings are less out west as the winds have dropped to 5-10 mph, but it is still very dry in the afternoon. Watch out for Burn bands.
I mentioned 98L earlier, which is that orange X and hatched area. There is a 50% chance it could develop into a tropical depression today, before it make landfall tonight. However, the heavy rain threat is the main issue to watch today through the weekend, depending on how long the moisture and forcing sticks around.
Erin continues to move WNW away from the islands, and current model tracks show the projected path to be between the US Coast, and Bermuda and the passing NE out to sea. If you are in either area (US or Bermuda) keep an eye on it. A little course change could bring issues to either place.
We’ve talked about the local impacts for both Lower Michigan and South Texas today, so the temperatures for both places look like this…
Mid to upper 80s in Lower Michigan today, lower 80 at the beaches.
For South Texas, it’s summer…Upper 80s to around 90 along the Coastal Bend and Coastal Plains (Victoria Crossroads too). Mid 90s to lower 100s (102º in Laredo).
Rip Current Risk along the beaches in Michigan remains low. While the Rip Current Risk along the Middle Texas Coast is expected to moderate today with 98L generating some bigger swell.
Video is here…
Got behind with a few errands this morning, and now I’m in Grand Rapids, so no video today.
The upper level low (trough) is through Lower Michigan, and the main cold front, as well.
Looking at the WWA (Watch/Warning/Advisory) map,
The East Coast has Heat Advisories, while the Central and Southern Appalachian mountains as well as middle Tennessee has flood watches as the rain continues to train over the region.
Heat is also an issue in the Lower Mississippi Valley and the Desert Southwest.
There are wild fire issues (Red Flag warnings and Fire Weather watches) for the Rocky Mountains and the Intermountain West.
SPC today has a slight risk in South Dakota, with a marginal in the Mid-Atlantic states and portions of New England.
WPC has a slight risk of excessive rain today in the area that has the flood watches.
NHC has a new area to watch in the Gulf, south and east of Texas. It has a 20% chance for them next 7 days of development, and a 10% for the next 48 hours. It’s a pretty disorganized wave, so far. It could cause issues with the Middle Texas Coast, in a few days with the possibility of heavy rain and rip currents. TS Erin is still quite a ways out, but in the 6-10 day range could begin to produce rip currents and beach flooding. The X near the Canadian Maritime Provinces, has gone to 0% chance so it is will continue to move out to sea.
In Lower Michigan, it’s going to be sunny and a little less warm than it has been through Friday. So beach weather through Friday, in northern lower Michigan, will be good. The West Michigan beach today, still has a moderate rip current risk.
In South Texas, it looks sunny, with a low rip current risk.
A special Coffee and A Weather Map with Jeff…Why I don’t give credence to the long range model click bait. A case study of Hurricane Beryl’s track.
Hi all!
I think I said this in a post on FB and X last week, but my wife and I are at Trawler school! We are learning to drive boats. Yesterday was the first day of school, and my boat driving skills are coming back to me. Getting the feel of these 32’ tug/trawlers has been good for getting me used to driving our boat in the coming weeks. I’m going to try and post stuff in the evenings on social media as I run into it. I’m having to study the in class materials each day, so posting will still be hit or miss for the upcoming days. We do get to take the trawler out on our own, for the weekend so Mary and I are trying to figure out where we want to go (within Grand Traverse Bay). Hopefully, next week when we get back to our boat, I’ll start posting videos again.
Slight Risk in Montana. Heat is expanding. Tropics, are the ramping up? Also, if you don’t want to listen to the whole thing, I’m releasing the Analysis and National Forecast, the Local forecasts, and Tropics separately.
Want a forecast? DM on social media accounts…
Websites used: Weather.gov (WPC/SPC/Local offices),
https://Tropicaltidbits.com,
https://weather.cod.edu (College of DuPage),
https://ecmwf.int (European Centre for Medium range Weather Forecast)
Apps used: RadarScope
EverythingWeather
Web Links: https://ministry-weather.com
Facebook: recreational.weather
Instagram: recreational.weather
X: (South Texas and Lower Michigan Recreational Weather) @nmirecwx
Coffee and a Weather Map with Jeff…07/18/2025. Flooding rain continues in the Mid-Atlantic. Slight Risk of Severe in Lower Michigan Saturday. South Texas Summer, and pleasant in Michigan.
